Experts Wonder Why Coronavirus Cases Drop in India
2021-02-20
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1Health experts in India are seeking to find out what caused a major drop in coronavirus cases in recent months.
2New infections had climbed for months across India last year, but then began falling in September.
3Now the country is reporting about 11,000 new cases a day.
4That is down from nearly 100,000 during the worst period of the crisis.
5Experts studying the virus have suggested many possible explanations for the sudden drop, which happened in nearly every part of India.
6Two possible explanations are that some areas of the country may have reached "herd immunity" or that Indians may have some preexisting protection from the coronavirus.
7The term herd immunity describes a situation in which enough people in a population are resistant to a disease so that it cannot spread.
8The Indian government has said it believes the decrease happened, at least partly, because of mask-wearing across the country.
9Wearing a mask in public is a rule in India and is strongly enforced in some cities.
10But experts have noted that virus cases also dropped in areas where mask-wearing was less common.
11Finding out causes for the drop could help officials better control COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
12India has reported nearly 11 million COVID-19 cases and over 155,000 deaths.
13Dr. Shahid Jameel studies viruses at India's Ashoka University.
14"If we don't know the reason, you could unknowingly be doing things that could lead to a flare-up," he told The Associated Press (AP).
15India, like other countries, misses many infections, and there have been questions about how it counts its virus deaths.
16But pressure on the country's hospitals also dropped in recent months.
17This suggests that the virus' spread is slowing.
18Recorded cases reached 9 million in November.
19At that time, official information showed that nearly 90 percent of all critical care beds with ventilators in New Delhi were full.
20This week, just 16 percent of those beds were occupied.
21Experts believe the drop cannot be the result of COVID-19 vaccines because India only began giving the injections in January.
22They say the effects of the vaccination program will only be seen later.
23Vineeta Bal studies how the body fights disease at India's National Institute of Immunology.
24She told the AP she thinks the drop in virus cases could be related to large areas reaching herd immunity.
25But other experts have warned that even if herd immunity in some places is partly responsible for the drop, the population as a whole remains vulnerable.
26This means people must continue to take measures to protect themselves.
27New research suggests that people who got sick with one form of the virus may be able to get infected again with a new version.
28For example, Bal pointed to a recent study in Manaus, Brazil.
29It estimated that over 75 percent of people there had antibodies for the virus in October -- before cases saw a sharp rise again in January.
30"I don't think anyone has the final answer," she said.
31Experts say another possibility is that many Indians get exposed to a series of diseases throughout their lives.
32That could help build up immunity against new viruses.
33Among diseases common in India are cholera, typhoid and tuberculosis.
34"If the COVID virus can be controlled in the nose and throat, before it reaches the lungs, it doesn't become as serious," said Dr. Jameel of Ashoka University.
35"Innate immunity works at this level, by trying to reduce the viral infection and stop it from getting to the lungs," he added.
36Even with the major drop in infections, Indian health officials are worried about new virus versions, or variants, slowing efforts to fight the coronavirus.
37Scientists have identified several new variants in the country, including some blamed for causing new infections in people who already had an earlier virus version.
38I'm Bryan Lynn.
1Health experts in India are seeking to find out what caused a major drop in coronavirus cases in recent months. 2New infections had climbed for months across India last year, but then began falling in September. Now the country is reporting about 11,000 new cases a day. That is down from nearly 100,000 during the worst period of the crisis. 3Experts studying the virus have suggested many possible explanations for the sudden drop, which happened in nearly every part of India. Two possible explanations are that some areas of the country may have reached "herd immunity" or that Indians may have some preexisting protection from the coronavirus. The term herd immunity describes a situation in which enough people in a population are resistant to a disease so that it cannot spread. 4The Indian government has said it believes the decrease happened, at least partly, because of mask-wearing across the country. Wearing a mask in public is a rule in India and is strongly enforced in some cities. But experts have noted that virus cases also dropped in areas where mask-wearing was less common. 5Finding out causes for the drop could help officials better control COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. India has reported nearly 11 million COVID-19 cases and over 155,000 deaths. 6Dr. Shahid Jameel studies viruses at India's Ashoka University. "If we don't know the reason, you could unknowingly be doing things that could lead to a flare-up," he told The Associated Press (AP). 7India, like other countries, misses many infections, and there have been questions about how it counts its virus deaths. But pressure on the country's hospitals also dropped in recent months. This suggests that the virus' spread is slowing. 8Recorded cases reached 9 million in November. At that time, official information showed that nearly 90 percent of all critical care beds with ventilators in New Delhi were full. This week, just 16 percent of those beds were occupied. 9Experts believe the drop cannot be the result of COVID-19 vaccines because India only began giving the injections in January. They say the effects of the vaccination program will only be seen later. 10Vineeta Bal studies how the body fights disease at India's National Institute of Immunology. She told the AP she thinks the drop in virus cases could be related to large areas reaching herd immunity. 11But other experts have warned that even if herd immunity in some places is partly responsible for the drop, the population as a whole remains vulnerable. This means people must continue to take measures to protect themselves. 12New research suggests that people who got sick with one form of the virus may be able to get infected again with a new version. For example, Bal pointed to a recent study in Manaus, Brazil. It estimated that over 75 percent of people there had antibodies for the virus in October -- before cases saw a sharp rise again in January. "I don't think anyone has the final answer," she said. 13Experts say another possibility is that many Indians get exposed to a series of diseases throughout their lives. That could help build up immunity against new viruses. Among diseases common in India are cholera, typhoid and tuberculosis. 14"If the COVID virus can be controlled in the nose and throat, before it reaches the lungs, it doesn't become as serious," said Dr. Jameel of Ashoka University. "Innate immunity works at this level, by trying to reduce the viral infection and stop it from getting to the lungs," he added. 15Even with the major drop in infections, Indian health officials are worried about new virus versions, or variants, slowing efforts to fight the coronavirus. Scientists have identified several new variants in the country, including some blamed for causing new infections in people who already had an earlier virus version. 16I'm Bryan Lynn. 17The Associated Press reported on this story. Bryan Lynn adapted the report for Learning English. Mario Ritter, Jr. was the editor. 18We want to hear from you. Write to us in the Comments section, and visit our Facebook page. 19________________________________________________________________ 20Words in This Story 21mask - n. a covering used to hide or disguise your face 22flare-up - n. a situation in which something - such as violence, pain or anger suddenly starts or gets much worse 23ventilator - n. a machine that helps a person breathe 24vulnerable - adj. easily hurt or harmed physically, mentally, or emotionally 25expose - v. to put (someone or something) at risk from a harmful action or condition 26immunity - n. to be protected against catching a disease 27innate - adj. inborn or natural